Statistics:
It Could be the Heisenberg Principle -- Yet, I'm Uncertain...
Dear Readers:
Firstly, note that the reference above has nothing to do with a trophy or with any organized sport involving a puck or any other projectile. It involves the notion of observation bias and the inherent uncertainty which surrounds it.
In basic terms, Heisenberg stated (probably in German), the act of our observing events actually influences them. While he was likely applying this to the notion of locating any particular electron orbiting an atom at any given moment, it metaphorically extrapololates itself to the notion of "before you judge the data, judge the source." In reviewing the results of surveys, polls, studies and the like, the first job is to investigate the influences (financial, industrial, personal, temporal, etc.) that "motivated" [either consciously or subconsciously] the researchers to do the research -- and often the priority of "selling a point of view" over merely "objectively discovering the truth" without any preconceived notion or extraneous pressures or influences.
Poll readers beware! The information which you are receiving may be marketing or publicity thinly-veiled as "objective reporting." Need an example? FOX NEWS: FAIR AND BALANCED REPORTING. (chuckle). Need another: The US Labor Department Statistics about unemployment and jobs lost. Tell Americans who cannot find employment anywhere, or who have just given up trying, or who have just reached the end of their unemployment benefits that we are "coming out of the recession," or that we've "turned the corner."
Caveat emptor.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
p.s. It is altogether too easy to fall prey to propaganda. Even your own deeply-ingrained but submerged bias can cause you to misinterpret people, events and words.
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Labels and Terms: polls, surveys, bias, hidden influences, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, judging the source, judging the reasons, asking questions about credibility and objectivity, TNNW, Douglas Castle
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