Showing posts with label international. Show all posts
Showing posts with label international. Show all posts

Monday, November 30, 2015

IMF's Acceptance Of The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan): Implications

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IMF's Acceptance Of The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan): Implications

The following material was derived from an article which appeared in The New York Times, today, November 30, 2015, and which was subsequently posted in Yahoo News. The implications, both short-term and in the longer-term are far-reaching and may produce increased pressure against the U.S. Dollar in the global Marketplace. It stands to benefit China in terms of international trade and capital markets, while having a potentially negative effect on the U.S. Currency's valuation and the U.S.' ability to compete in the global marketplace. Links to each of the two articles follow below:



In its simplest form, the renminbi, will now be join the USD and other long-standing preferred reserve currencies as a new preferred reserve currency and as a member of the market basket of currencies that comprise SDRs (Special Drawing Rights), which are the surrogate currency which the central banks of the world use to settle interbank debts through the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Possible implications are listed below for your review and evaluation:

=+ A percentage of the world's banks will now hold renminbi instead of dollars in their reserve portfolio. This will place a downward pressure on the USD just based upon the law of supply and demand;

=+ An increasing number of international transactions will now be denominated in renminbi in lieu of USD;

=+ There will be a strengthening of the renminbi and a weakening of the USD;

=+ China's position as an exporter (driven largely by its pricing advantages) will be somewhat more challenged, while the U.S.' potential as an exporter will be strengthened due to a “cheaper” currency;

=+ There may be an influx of USD back into the U.S. Which may be perceived by the Fed as being inflationary, which will put pressure on the Fed to increase domestic interest rates;

=+ The U.S securities markets will be adversely affected;

=+ The Chinese securities markets will be favorably impacted;

=+ U.S. Banks may risk slight credit downgrades;

=+ Chinese banks will experience increased credit stability.

In sum, the longer-term effect of this move by the IMF will cause some additional economic hardship for the U.S.


Douglas Castle

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A discussion of international business, events, markets, joint ventures, currencies, outsourcing, offshoring and financing, importing and exporting, as well as global sources of goods, services, labor, capital, trade guarantees, credit insurance and emerging markets.

Key Terms: international, global, business, trends, prediction, foreign exchange, outsourcing, supply chain, offshoring, import and export, emerging markets, the world economy, trade balance, trade finance, foreign direct investment, joint ventures, sovereignty, cultural sensitivity, diversity, emerging markets, INCOTERMS, tariffs, International Business Companies, asset protection trusts


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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The Three Greatest Global Crises - Douglas E. Castle

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The present-day dynamics of the geo-political economy (and indeed the underpinnings of civilization and basic civility as we have come to know them) are frightfully unstable and are only tenuously held together by diplomatic hyperactivity globally. It is my opinion that these diplomatic efforts will ultimately fail, and that the result will be a world 1) very much at war [in a situation where military might and mobilization will be the ultimate determining factors] and 2) in the throes of another significant global economic recession within the next twelve to twenty four months. The Stratfor international intelligence newsletter had this to say about the interconnection and possible convergence of three primary crises:

Within the past two weeks, a temporary deal to keep Greece in the eurozone was reached in Brussels, a cease-fire roadmap was agreed to in Minsk and Iranian negotiators advanced a potential nuclear deal in Geneva. Squadrons of diplomats have forestalled one geopolitical crisis after another. Yet it would be premature, even reckless, to assume that the fault lines defining these issues are effectively stable. Understanding how these crises are inextricably linked is the first step toward assessing when and where the next flare-up is likely to occur.

Germany and the Eurozone Crisis

Germany has once again become the victim of its own power. As Europe's largest creditor, it has considerable political leverage over debtor nations such as Greece, whose entire livelihood now depends on whether German Chancellor Angela Merkel is willing to sign another bailout check. Lest we forget, Germany is exporting more than half of its GDP, and most of those exports are consumed within Europe. Thus, the institutions Germany relies on to protect its export markets are the very institutions Berlin must battle to protect Germany's national wealth.

Many have characterized the recent Brussels deal as a victory for Berlin over Athens as eurozone finance ministers, including the Portuguese, Spanish and French, stood behind Germany in refusing Greece the right to circumvent its debt obligations. But Merkel is also not about to gamble an unlimited amount of German taxpayer funds on flimsy Greek pledges to cut costs and impose structural reforms on a population that, for now, still views the ruling Syriza party as its savior from austerity. Within four months, Greece and Germany will be at loggerheads again, and Greece will likely still lack the austerity credentials that Berlin needs to convince its own Euroskeptics that it has the institutional heft and credibility to impose Germanic thriftiness on the rest of Europe. The more time Germany buys, the more inflexible the German and Greek negotiating positions become, and the more seriously traders, businessmen and politicians alike will have to take the threat of a so-called Grexit, the first in a chain of events that could shatter the eurozone.

The Role of the Crisis in Ukraine

In order to steer Germany through an escalating eurozone crisis, Merkel needs to calm her eastern front. It is no wonder, then, that she committed herself to multiple sleepless nights and an incessant travel schedule to put another Minsk agreement with Russia on paper. The deal was flawed from the start because it avoided recognizing the ongoing attempts by Russian-backed separatists to smooth out the demarcation line by bringing the pocket of Debaltseve under their zone of control. After several more days of scuffling, the Germans (again leveraging their creditor status — this time, against Ukraine) quietly pushed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to accept the battlefield reality and move along with the cease-fire agreement. But even if Germany on one side and Russia on the other were able to bring about a relative calm in eastern Ukraine, it would do little in the end to de-escalate the standoff between the United States and Russia.

The Connection Between Ukraine and Iran

Contrary to popular opinion in the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not driven by crazed territorial ambitions. He is looking at the map, just as his predecessors have for centuries, and grappling with the task of securing the Russian underbelly from a borderland state coming under the wing of a much more formidable military power in the West. As the United States has reminded Moscow repeatedly over the past several days, the White House retains the option to send lethal aid to Ukraine. With heavier equipment comes trainers, and with trainers come boots on the ground.
From his perspective, Putin can already see the United States stretching beyond NATO bounds to recruit and shore up allies along the Russian periphery. Even as short-term truces are struck in eastern Ukraine, there is nothing precluding a much deeper U.S. probe in the region. That is the assumption that will drive Russian actions in the coming months as Putin reviews his military options, which include establishing a land bridge to Crimea (a move that would still, in effect, leave Russia's border with Ukraine exposed), a more ambitious push westward to anchor at the Dnieper River and probing actions in the Baltic states to test NATO's credibility.

The United States does not have the luxury of precluding any one of these possibilities, so it must prepare accordingly. But focusing on the Eurasian theater entails first tying up loose ends in the Middle East, starting with Iran. And so we come to Geneva, where U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met again Feb. 22 to work out the remaining points of a nuclear deal before March 31, the date by which U.S. President Barack Obama is supposed to demonstrate enough progress in negotiations to hold Congress back from imposing additional sanctions on Iran. If the United States is to realistically game out scenarios in which U.S. military forces confront Russia in Europe, it needs to be able to rapidly redeploy forces that have spent the past dozen years putting out fires ignited by sprouting jihadist emirates and preparing for a potential conflict in the Persian Gulf. To lighten its load in the Middle East, the United States will look to regional powers with vested and often competing interests to shoulder more of the burden.

A U.S.-Iranian understanding goes well beyond agreeing on how much uranium Iran is allowed to enrich and stockpile and how much sanctions relief Iran gets for limiting its nuclear program. It will draw the regional contours of an Iranian sphere of influence and allow room for Washington and Tehran to cooperate in areas where their interests align. We can already see this in effect in Iraq and Syria, where the threat of the Islamic State has compelled the United States and Iran to coordinate efforts to contain jihadist ambitions. Though the United States will understandably be more cautious in its public statements while it tries to limit Israeli anxiety, U.S. officials have allegedly made positive remarks about Hezbollah's role in fighting terrorism when speaking privately with their Lebanese interlocutors in recent meetings. This may seem like a minor detail on the surface, but Iran sees a rapprochement with the United States as an opportunity to seek recognition for Hezbollah as a legitimate political actor.

A U.S.-Iranian rapprochement will not be complete by March, June or any other deadline Washington sets for this year. Framework agreements on the nuclear issue and sanctions relief will necessarily be implemented in phases to effectively extend the negotiations into 2016, when Congress could allow the core sanctions act against Iran to expire after several months of testing Iranian compliance and after Iran gets past its parliamentary elections. Arrestors could arise along the way, such as the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but they will not deter the White House from setting a course toward normalizing relations with Iran. The United States, regardless of which party is controlling the White House, will rank the threat of a growing Eurasian conflict well ahead of de-escalating the conflict with Iran. Even as a nuclear agreement establishes the foundation for a U.S.-Iranian understanding, Washington will rely on regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to eat away at the edges of Iran's sphere of influence, encouraging the natural rivalries in the region to mold a relative balance of power over time.

Circling Back

Germany needs a deal with Russia to be able to manage an existential crisis for the eurozone; Russia needs a deal with the United States to limit U.S. encroachment on its sphere of influence; and the United States needs a deal with Iran to refocus its attention on Russia. No conflict is divorced from the other, though each may be of a different scale. Germany and Russia can find ways to settle their differences, as can Iran and the United States. But a prolonged eurozone crisis cannot be avoided, nor can a deep Russian mistrust of U.S. intentions for its periphery.

Both issues bring the United States back to Eurasia. A distracted Germany will compel the United States to go beyond NATO boundaries to encircle Russia. Rest assured, Russia — even under severe economic stress — will find the means to respond.

The Intersection of Three Crises is republished with permission of Stratfor.

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While the U.S. populace is busily listening to news about either the mounting ISIL crisis or about the partisan power play and tug-of-war between Congress and an increasingly isolated presidential administration under Mr. Barack Obama, they are not focused upon what the effects of world events will be on the US economy. These effects will likely be disastrous, as indicated in the first paragraph of this article.

As a side note, the relationship between the US administration and the State of Israel is becoming increasingly strained - This may hurt both nations in the war on terrorism in general, and more specifically, on the effort to stop the advancement of ISIL.

As always, thank you for reading me.

Douglas E. Castle For The Internationalist Page Blog

Labels, Tags, Categories, Keywords And Search Terms For This Article: eurozone, ISIL, Islamic State, international, economy, Barack Obama, Ukraine, Iran, crisis, Douglas E. Castle



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A discussion of international business, events, markets, joint ventures, currencies, outsourcing, offshoring and financing, importing and exporting, as well as global sources of goods, services, labor, capital, trade guarantees, credit insurance and emerging markets.

Key Terms: international, global, business, trends, prediction, foreign exchange, outsourcing, supply chain, offshoring, import and export, emerging markets, the world economy, trade balance, trade finance, foreign direct investment, joint ventures, sovereignty, cultural sensitivity, diversity, emerging markets, INCOTERMS, tariffs, International Business Companies, asset protection trusts

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

The Exporting Business Made Simple - Douglas E. Castle

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The export of goods and services overseas has never been as profitable or as possible as it is right now. With a slightly deflated dollar and an ever-increasing overseas demand for products made in the United States due to increasing consumerism amongst the emerging economies, creating an export channel or division to your business is a wise choice in terms of broadening your customer base and diversifying your sources of revenue in a tempestuous domestic economy.

With a computer (I like to utilize Skype), a telephone and a comfortable chair, many companies in the United States can create virtual export divisions at minimal cost -- without ever taking a single plane trip. To learn more about this please feel free to contact me at http://bit.ly/CASTLEDIRECT . You'll receive the help that you'll need. This is the easy way to get started if you're not already in the export business, or if you've just gotten started but need a bit of confidence bolstering and guidance.

If you prefer to engage in the business yourself, remember that as an exporter you face risks that most businesses never have to consider. When most banks hear the term "export," they usually become hesitant to lend, or to issue any type of loan or credit guarantee (remember Letters Of Credit? That's almost nostalgic nowadays). The good news here is that the Export-Import Bank of the United States currently has a program which guarantees up to 95% of exporter financing - externalizing your risks associated with both trade transactions and larger international projects.

If you'd like to learn more about this exporting program, you can receive a download about export and exporting guarantees from EX-IM by clicking on https://www.mediafire.com/?bo01q35e3so0etm .
The export business is only getting better ... and the time to begin (if you haven't started already) is today.

Douglas E. Castle

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A discussion of international business, events, markets, joint ventures, currencies, outsourcing, offshoring and financing, importing and exporting, as well as global sources of goods, services, labor, capital, trade guarantees, credit insurance and emerging markets.

Key Terms: international, global, business, trends, prediction, foreign exchange, outsourcing, supply chain, offshoring, import and export, emerging markets, the world economy, trade balance, trade finance, foreign direct investment, joint ventures, sovereignty, cultural sensitivity, diversity, emerging markets, INCOTERMS, tariffs, International Business Companies, asset protection trusts

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Money-Laundering: Keep Yourself And Your Business Safe.

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In both domestic and international transactions, there will be payments involved, whether they are done through bank wire transfers, merchant payment systems, investment brokerage firms, or through online FOREX or currency exchange media. In every situation involving your receipt of a payment, regardless of its amount or purpose, you expose yourself and your business tto the risk of being accused of money laundering.

The definition of 'money laundering' or 'conspiracy to participate, further, aid, abet, or engage in a money laundering scheme' is sufficiently general (especially in the United States at the present time) that there is a duty imposed upon the recipients of any payments to 1) perform an authentication of the source of the funds; 2) conduct at least a cursory or reasonable investigation of the sender of the funds; and, 3) obtain, if at all possible a sworn representation from the sender that the funds were A) obtained legally (and are free of all liens, encumbrances, taxes or tariffs due), and in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations, and have been B) transmitted legally and in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.

While neither The Internationalist Page Blog nor The Links4LifeAlerts! Blog do not provide, and must not be construed as providing legal, tax, financial or accounting advice, we would strongly suggest, that you and your firm construct, with the assistance and oversight of expert legal counsel, a system of protocols and documentation in order to be able to demonstrate that you have taken your responsibility to prevent and avoid participating in any type of money laundering. You might consider using some of the procedures and forms provided through ICS - International Connection Services, in conjunction with your attorney's advisement in order to avoid making yourself or your business appear to be involved in any aspect of money laundering.

The points set forth above cannot be overemphasized. You must now be defensive, not only in your conducting of business and commerce, but you must also act as if you were a regulator in evaluating, investigating, authenticating and documenting of every payment.

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The article which follows (re-printed) appeared in The New York Times regarding Liberty Reserve, an online payments and money transfer system that has been accused by several international intelligence and law enforcement agencies of knowingly serving as a conduit for money laundering:

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May 28, 2013

Online Currency Exchange Accused of Laundering $6 Billion

The operators of a global currency exchange ran a $6 billion money-laundering operation online, a central hub for criminals trafficking in everything from stolen identities to child pornography, federal prosecutors in New York said on Tuesday.

The currency exchange, Liberty Reserve, operated beyond the traditional confines of United States and international banking regulations in what prosecutors called a shadowy netherworld of cyberfinance. It traded in virtual currency and provided the kind of anonymous and easily accessible banking infrastructure increasingly sought by criminal networks, law enforcement officials said.

The charges announced at a news conference by Preet Bharara, the United States attorney in Manhattan, and other law enforcement officials, mark what officials said was believed to be the largest online money-laundering case in history. Over seven years, Liberty Reserve was responsible for laundering billions of dollars, conducting 55 million transactions that involved millions of customers around the world, including about 200,000 in the United States, according to prosecutors.

Richard Weber, who heads the Internal Revenue Service’s criminal investigation division in Washington, said at the news conference that the case heralds the arrival of “the cyber age of money laundering,” in which criminals “are gravitating toward digital currency alternatives as a means to move, conceal and enjoy their ill-gotten gains.”

“If Al Capone were alive today, this is how he would be hiding his money,” Mr. Weber said. “Our efforts today shatter the belief among high-tech money launderers that what happens in cyberspace stays in cyberspace.”

Just as PayPal revolutionized how people shop online, making it possible to buy a microwave oven or concert tickets with the click of a button, Liberty Reserve sought to create a similarly convenient way for criminals to make financial transactions, law enforcement officials said.

The charges detailed a complicated system designed to allow people to move sums large and small around the world with virtual anonymity, according to an indictment, which was unsealed in federal court in Manhattan.

“As alleged, the only liberty that Liberty Reserve gave many of its users was the freedom to commit crimes — the coin of its realm was anonymity, and it became a popular hub for fraudsters, hackers and traffickers,” Mr. Bharara said at the news conference, where officials from the Justice and Treasury Departments, as well as the Secret Service and Homeland Security Investigations, also spoke. “The global enforcement action we announce today is an important step toward reining in the ‘Wild West’ of illicit Internet banking. As crime goes increasingly global, the long arm of the law has to get even longer, and in this case, it encircled the earth.”

Liberty Reserve surfaced as a preferred vehicle to transfer money between parties in a number of recent high-profile cybercrimes, including the indictment of eight New Yorkers accused of helping to loot $45 million from bank machines in 27 countries, officials said.

Liberty Reserve was incorporated in Costa Rica in 2006 by Arthur Budovsky, who renounced his United States citizenship in 2011, and was arrested in Spain on Friday. He was among seven people charged in the case; five of them were under arrest, while two remained at large in Costa Rica. All were charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business, and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business. The money laundering count carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, and the other two charges carry a maximum of 5 years each.

In addition to the criminal charges, five domain names were seized, including the one used by Liberty Reserve. Officials also seized or restricted the activity of 45 bank accounts.
The closing of Liberty Reserve last week seemed to have an immediate chilling effect on its customers, who were suddenly unable to access their funds and who posted anxious comments in underground forums, according to law enforcement officials. Mr. Bharara said the exchange’s clientele was largely made up of criminals, but he invited any legitimate users to contact his office to get their money back.

The charges outlined how the money transfer system operated, offering a glimpse into the murky world of online financial transactions where money bounces between accounts from Cyprus to New York in the blink of an eye.

To transfer money using Liberty Reserve, a user needed only to provide a name, address and date of birth. But users were not required to validate their identity.

“Accounts could therefore be opened easily using fictitious or anonymous identities,” the indictment states. Prosecutors cited “blatantly criminal monikers” used by Liberty Reserve clients, like “Russia Hackers.”

Essentially, all a customer needed to open an account was an e-mail address.
One undercover agent was able to register accounts under names like “Joe Bogus” and describe the purpose of the account as “for cocaine” without being questioned, officials said. That no-questions-asked verification system made Liberty Reserve the premier bank for cybercriminals, prosecutors said.

The case is significant, prosecutors said, because it attacks the financial infrastructure used by many cybercriminals in much the same way that drug-money-laundering prosecutions unravel the financial underpinnings of the narcotics trade.

Dismantling the Liberty Reserve operation was “critical because transnational criminal organizations can succeed only so long as they can funnel their illicit proceeds freely and without detection,” said James T. Hayes Jr., the special-agent-in-charge for Immigration and Customs Enforcement Homeland Security Investigations.

While Liberty Reserve was incorporated outside the United States, federal officials used a provision in the Patriot Act to target the organization and other financial institutions with whom they conducted business. It was the first time the provision had been used to prosecute a virtual currency provider, officials said.

Liberty Reserve did not take or make cash payments directly and instead used “third-party ‘exchangers,’ ” according to the indictment. These exchangers would take and make payments, and then credit or debit the Liberty Reserve account, allowing Liberty Reserve to avoid collecting any banking information on its clients and not leave a “centralized financial paper trail,” the indictment said.

The exchangers, the indictment said, “tended to be unlicensed money-transmitting businesses without significant government oversight or regulation, concentrated in Malaysia, Russia, Nigeria and Vietnam.”

The people who accepted Liberty Reserve’s currency were “overwhelmingly criminal in nature,” according to the indictment.

“They included, for example: traffickers of stolen credit card data and personal identity information; peddlers of various types of online Ponzi and get-rich-quick schemes; computer hackers for hire; unregulated gambling enterprises; and underground drug-dealing Web sites,” according to the indictment.

Despite the case against Liberty Reserve, security experts said, there were plenty of online payment systems that allow users to move money without verifying their identities.

“Organized crime and terrorist groups are now financing their operations through these anonymous payment systems,” said Tom Kellermann, a vice president at Trend Micro, a security firm. “The financial sector no longer has a monopoly on moving capital around the world.”
####

These are indeed difficult times in the world's capital markets, and blame, entrapment and prosecution are becoming increasing pervasive. This means that in order to further secure your safety and freedom you've got to be all the more diligent. Anticipate, as would The Global Futurist Blog's readership, that things will only get tougher.

As always, thank you for reading me, and for sharing my articles with your colleagues, contacts and associates through your social media.

Douglas E. Castle







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