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Monday, May 03, 2010
The Latest WFS 25-Year Forecast: Douglas Castle's Commentary on Short-Term versus Long-Term Forecasts
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25-Year Trend Forecast Summary - Provided by THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY
Dear Friends, Futurists and Internationalists:
I am not necessarily in agreement with all of the trends cited (or hypothesized) by The World Future Society, but they are one of the many sources from which I derive my trend analyses and predictions. At most, some of what they touch upon in their newsletter promotion (re-published below) will come to pass -- at very least, WFS provides some very good, highly imaginative fuel for thought. I have taken the liberty of re-posting Thomas Mack's letter in its entirety, with a live hyperlink embedded within it to get you to see some of what WFS believes the future holds for us. Generally speaking it is wise to bear the following parameters in mind when evaluating any forecast offered by any Futurist:
1. Shorter-term forecasts (one to five years) tend to be more immediately useful and more probable, while the longer-range forecasts tend to be more a study in imagination than in statistical extrapolation.
2. Despite the inherent uncertainties and difficulties associated with longer-term forecasts (ten to fifty years), they have the possibility of actually shaping the future by occasionally introducing an idea which incites innovation and the ultimate manifestation of a self-fulfilling prophesy. It is the natural propensity of some early initiators and entrepreneurial spirits to seize upon a good idea and to make it into a reality, thereby actually having made the future conform to certain predictions.
Having said all of this, please enjoy what follows.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
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