Near-Term Trends, Forecasts and Projections at 01.21.2011 - The Global Futurist - The Internationalist Page
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Dear Friends, Fellow Futurists, Entrepreneurs, TNNWC Members and Global Thinkers:
Greetings and compliments. As usual, the customary disclaimer applies. If you do not read it and understand it, you are not authorized to read any of the content which follows it. If you cannot read it or understand it, you probably should be reading a different article, on a different blog, by a different author...perhaps you should just be watching television or playing with a Slinky. These are not generally considered to be dangerous activities (unless you are taking medication, have a health condition limitation, or you are doing the Slinky thing on or near steps or a stairwell). Having said this, if you concur, please read on [I will wait].
Note: The information contained herein is not and should therefore not be considered or construed as financial, investment, tax, accounting, legal or health advice under any circumstances. If you are seeking professional advice regarding any of your business or personal affairs, please consult with the appropriate professional. Neither the author, nor The Global Futurist, nor The Internationalist Page are in the business of offering any professional advice, and none of the foregoing parties shall assume any liability, either express or implied, regarding any actions taken, or not taken, by any third party or parties as a result of, or in any manner, relating to the information contained herein. The reader of this article understands and acknowledges that he or she has read and fully understands the foregoing, and indemnifies and holds harmless each and all of the aforementioned parties with respect to any liability whatsoever resulting from any actions taken or decisions made based upon, or in relation to, any of the information contained herein.
NEAR-TERM TRENDS, FORECASTS AND PROJECTIONS AT 01.21.2011
1. The price of oil (per barrel) will rise to between $120 and $150 US Dollars per barrel, and both oil and gasoline prices at the pump in both the US and Europe will reflect this. The timeframe will be between now and June, 2011. Prices per gallon of gasoline in the US will rise to approximately $5.00 US per gallon at the pump. All transportation-related industries, and all transportation-dependent commodities will rise in price in response. This will slow the alleged economic recovery and dampen employment prospects in the United States and in Europe.
2. The US mainstream media will begin focusing on tensions and troubles in North Korea and Iran, while the US military and contractors dependent therupon will be lobbying for increased defense spending. As China becomes a world leader and flexes more and more of its fiscal and military muscle, this lobbying will increase in intensity, and effectiveness. The timeframe for this will be between now and 2012. An increased defense allocation and related spending will ultimately result. Privately-owned and publicly-traded military, engineering and other "contractors" will continue to thrive, as military actions and "nationbuilding" activities become increasingly privatized.
3. International investments in certain of Asia's ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) will increase, particularly in Singapore and Malaysia. These ETFs will outperform most other exchange-traded non-commodity investments. Major oil company stocks will outperform the general securities markets during most of this time [now to 2012].
4. There will be an increased percentage of consumer purchasing activity taking place over the internet internationally, as travel becomes less practical and more expensive. This will benefit the operators or e-commerce businesses. [now to 2012]
5. There will be increased civilian arms sales within the United States - this has already begun in response to fears of domestic violence and a deepening security crisis in neighboring Mexico, which will become increasingly controlled by major drug lords and international drug cartels, to the extent that the Mexican government will be merely a vestige of authority. [now to 2012]
6. There will be a further exodus of jobs, talent, opportunities and well-educated individuals (recent college graduates and displaced Baby Boomers) from the United States to Asia, Canada, Western Europe and to parts of Central and South America. [now, and for another five years at minimum]
7. The economies of China, emerging nations in Southeast Asia, India and Brazil will outperform virtually all of the others. [now, and for the next three years at minimum]
8. For reasons unknown to the author, catastrophic weather events, and rapid environmental and ecological changes will continue to be more the norm than a mere aberration. Global Warming? Ecological Abuse? Revelations? I offer no cause -- only an effect. The business of catastrophic event-related insurance and political risk insurance will rise to greater public prominence and thrive in profitability. [now, and continuing for an uncertain period of time]
9. Cloud computing will rise to a greater acceptance level, and mobile devices will be the predominant means of communication. Texting will all but replace email, and a few major "software as service" cloud providers will emerge to dominate the communications landscape. Mobile applications and mobile-friendly communications will supplant most software-stuffed computers, and their use. Communications security will be a concern, but will not significantly slow the adaptation of cloud configurations and dependencies.
10. Stuxnet, the sophisticated virus which confounded Iran's efforts to become a nuclear power (i.e., to build nuclear reactors for peacetime energy production), is just one of many government-sponsored or organization-sponsored cyberterrorist weapons or threats to be developed and used during the next few years. The interrelationships among universities, governments and giant computer service providers will make this impossible to safeguard against. Science fiction? No. Reality.
11. The business of reputation management on the internet (i.e., protecting an individual's or company's image or reputation on the internet from being sullied by citizen journalists, vindictive [and occasionally unfounded] but indelible complaints and allegations which do not disappear from search engine findings and data-mining research) will rise to prominence and grow. Large enterprises will use the technologies of reputation management entites offensively as well as defensively in battles over marketshare and the the court of public opinion. I believe that this industry will be booming during the course of these next two years, commencing with Spring of 2011. The ingrained philosophies and ethics of negative campaigning virtually assure the success of these reputation management forms -- competitive campaigning will feed these companies to robust growth.
I believe that's all that I have for now. I look forward to updating you.
As someone's uncle once said, "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Where there are new problems, there are also new opportunities for those who can see them and seize upon them rapidly.
Tags, Labels, Key Terms: ETFs, exchange-traded funds, oil prices, recession, unemployment, brain drain, futurism, baby boomers, outsourcing, offshoring, demographic shifts, climate change, ecology, catastropic weather, cloud computing, malware, cyberterrorism, new types of insurance, internet reputation management, industries of the future, internationalism, e-commerce, Stuxnet, foreign affairs, CFR, Council on Foreign Relations, defense budget, military privatization, drug lords, drug wars, Articles by Douglas E. Castle, unfolding trends, international investing, global economics, TNNWC Group, mobile applications, mobile-friendly, communications security, hackers, industrial sabotage, industrial espionage, search engine manipulation, search engine rigging, negative campaigning, SEO manipulation, DouglasCastleBlogosphere, Fibonacci, militias, opportunities in times of crisis, internet reputation protection, malware issues, data-mining, The Internationalist Page, The Global Futurist, Taking Command
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