The Internationalist Page Blog Update: Applied Research Associates, Inc. recently launched the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES), a website that lets members of the public test out methods to crowdsource intelligence predictions.
Funded by Iarpa, the intelligence community’s advanced research shop, ACES invites users to try their hand at making predictions and sharpening up their forecasting skills. The resulting data, ARA and Iarpa hope, will let spooks find out if the crowd can build a better crystal ball for the intel world. The project will test out crowd-based forecasting for the intelligence community by testing its methods out on a website.
“We’re trying to make good use of everybody’s individual opinions and trying to determine what aspects of them might be important and would lead to a good forecast,” says Dr. Dirk Warnaar, the principal investigator for the ACES project at Applied Research Associates.
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I would invite all of my Internationalist Page, Global Futurist and TNNWC Management Consulting Services Group colleagues, clients, readers and friends to aggressively participate and share your input into this wonderful collaborative project. Any tool which can be used to divine the future, or to even help shape it, is important to develop.
This project has been well announced throughout the United States, and, to a lesser extent, several other countries -- but this is simply not good enough. I believe that the sources of input should be ethnically, culturally and geographically diverse, and to the greatest extent possible. We are all participants in the future, and it is only appropriate that we share our views to allow for a more comprehensive forecast picture.
Some weblinks follow for your use. Please... let your voices -- all of our voices be heard. Let's make the statistical sampling of participants' views of the future be more genuinely indicative of the world, as a whole. It takes collaboration to build a better database.
Note: For those of you who are slightly (and perhaps justifiably) paranoid about surveys, censuses and the like, or who feel a sense of intrusive government conspiracy -- you may well be right in terms of the nefarious intentions of those users of the aggregated information. However, I believe that this information can be shaped to our (i.e., the global populace of citizen ambassadors) advantage by the nature of our input. In this way, we may very well help ourselves, despite the questionable motives of those who intend to use this data. Most importantly -- we shape the database by our input.
This is a particularly important opportunity for those American citizens who have an interest not only in patriotism, but in globalism, as well.
Thank you.
Douglas E Castle [http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com]
Links To Explore Regarding ACES, IARPA, OSI And Related Intelligence/ Prediction Opportunities:
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