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A RE-DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH - AND SOME POSSIBLE REASONS
Dear Readers:
TIME Magazine is forecasting that the number of millionaires (as well as their respective individual and aggregate net worth) will surpass that of the United States as well as that of perhaps any other nation by the year 2013. I believe this to be true, at least to the extent that a large amount of wealth obtained by certain US parties during the course of the last ten years and secreted away is not factored into the analysis. Wealth obtained by criminal means is generally neither reported nor incorporated in the creation of these statistics -- it tends to remain "off the books." For the purposes of this article, we will define "millionaires" as individuals who reportedly have net worths in excess of $1.0 million United States Dollars.
First, take a few moments to review the article, which originally appeared in TIME, but appears here through the courtesy of Yahoo! News:
Asia's Millionaires Could Be Richer Than America's By 2013
AP – FILE - In this Sept. 29, 2008, file photo Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD Co., attends a joint press conference … By ADAM ROSE / HONG KONG Adam Rose / Hong Kong –
Thu Oct 15, 11:10 am ET
As Asia's economic growth races ahead of that of the U.S., the investment portfolios of Asia's wealthiest people are picking up enough momentum to slingshot them past their North American counterparts.
A report released Oct. 13 by Merrill Lynch and consulting firm Capgemini Financial Services projects that with the global recession easing, the total net worth of Asia-Pacific's wealthy - those with at least $1 million in investable assets - is set to grow at a faster pace than the holdings of rich people in other parts of the world. If this trend takes hold, the total value of assets held by Asia's rich could surpass the combined assets of North America's wealthy by 2013. All the world's millionaires will have a combined net worth of $48.5 trillion in four years, according to Merrill Lynch/Capgemini. Of that, $13.5 trillion will be held by Asia's Élite, compared with $12.7 for all of North America. Arvind Sundaresan, Asia Pacific sales chief for Capgemini, says the projection is based on economic data and growth rates as well as interviews with wealth managers. He adds that his company's estimate "is very much on the conservative side." (See pictures of Shanghai today.)
This doesn't necessarily mean Bill Gates (net worth: $40 billion) will lose his place in the Guinness Book of World Records as the world's richest man any time soon. But as Eastern economies, powered by a resurgent China, bounce back, the ranks of the planet's wealthiest are becoming increasingly populated by Asians. China in particular is minting nouveaux riches at a remarkable rate. Five years ago, the country had just three billionaires, according to the Hurun Rich List, which annually ranks the country's 1,000 wealthiest individuals. Today, China has 130 billionaires, according to Hurun's latest ranking released Oct. 13. That's up from 101 in 2008 (the U.S. has 359 billionaires, according to Forbes magazine).
Topping China's rich list is Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD, a Chinese car manufacturer making hybrid electric cars. Wang, who's worth an estimated $5.1 billion, wasn't even on the list last year. But BYD's stock price has been soaring since Warren Buffett - who is ranked by Forbes as the world's second richest man with a $37 billion fortune - invested in the company in September 2008. Fast-growing BYD is also getting help from China's buoyant car market, which despite the sluggish global economy is expected to grow 5% in 2009.
Wong Kwong Yu, named by Hurun last year as China's richest person with $6.3 billion, fell off the list this year after the tycoon was convicted and sent to jail for manipulating share prices of a medical company controlled by his brother. This year's second-richest Chinese is so-called "paper queen" Zhang Yin, who has accumulated $4.9 billion by buying recycled paper from the U.S. and turning it into cardboard boxes.
Although Asians have been getting rich quicker than most, this doesn't mean the region's millionaires were unscathed by the financial crisis. In fact, during the depths of the market meltdown, they fared more poorly than the average Daddy Warbucks. According to the Merrill Lynch/Capgemini survey, wealthy Asians in 2008 lost 35% of their net worth, compared to a global average loss of 24%. But Asian stock and property markets - and the investments of wealthy Asians - have rebounded sharply since March as regional economies shrugged off recession. China's GDP is projected to expand 8.5% this year, compared with 1.5% growth in the U.S.
Wang of BYD may have a ways to go before he challenges Gates for the title of world's wealthiest. But Rupert Hoogewerf, founder and compiler of the Hurun Rich List, says that given current trends, "there's a very strong possibility that in 15 years time you'll see somebody in China being number one in the world."
China Casts an Acquisitive Eye on U.S. Assets
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COMMENTARY:
Cutting through some of the sensationalism and statistics, the underlying causality of this forecast is allocable, first and foremost, to the growing divergence between the level of prosperity in China and the level in the United States. Our real GDP shrinks, as does our real Balance of Trade and Balance of Payments, while the corresponding statistics for China are actually rising, albeit a bit more slowly than would otherwise be taking place due to the friction of the global recession. Breaking this down further, where China excels in certain crucial entrepreneurial areas, the United States has fallen far behind. These factors are culturally-influenced and reflect the differing values of our respective societies.
1. Chinese tend to save and to believe in savings, often banking up to 30% of their available income. In the United States, our rate of savings is actually slightly negative;
2. Chinese tend to purchase with equity. In the US, we have hyperleveraged everything;
3. The Chinese enjoy gambling, but not with savings, equity or investments. They do research, and tend to avoid volatile and speculative markets; In the US, we frequently bet the proverbial ranch -- even if we are supposedly conservative institutions like union pension funds, and banks;
4. The Chinese act insular, but they are excellent students, and watch and learn from everything. In the US, we have breathed a bit too much of our own ether;
5. The Chinese negotiate what they believe to be bargain purchases. In the US, if money is available from investment firms or banks, we no longer seek value -- we merely acquire;
6. The Chinese produce more efficiently than the United States, and their long-maligned quality controls are improving with the influx of expatriates from other countries going to China to seek better opportunities;
7. The Chinese do not like to be debtors - they prefer to be collateralized lenders, ready to call a loan and acquire a valuable asset. In the US, we lend as long as the money is available, and we do not generally follow good credit analysis protocol in terms of our loan-to-value critieria, our debt-servicing criteria, or our knowledge of the borrower. It is sad to think that a US bank would make a loan predicated on the assumption that a property would appreciate in value and be either refinanced or sold as a means of recovering the loaned principal;
8. The Chinese are entrepreneurs. In the US, we have become career-path planners and middle level managers. We, in the US, have lost the cause and effect relationship of production/ contribution and profit/ reward. We have lost our laser focus on being better, and more competitive, and settled for promotions, bonuses and the expectation that the environment and economy would remain static -- that we could lead by standing still.
9. Most frighteningly (for any patriotic US citizen, whether an Internationalist, or an isolationist!), the Chinese people are obsessed with efficiency and productivity (at least at the moment), and the United States has become obseesed with government rescue, and a restoration of the status quo that has helped to precipitate our decline.
The whole world can learn a lesson by observing and analyzing this dynamic.
Look for more and more Chinese ownership of controlling stakes in US businesses, assets, and large blocks of debt instruments.
As the Chinese plan for the longer term, and think dynastically (multi-generationally), prudent seekers of co-venture partners and investment capital will turn away from US investment banks, hedge funds and wealth managers and begin to look to China for entrepreneurial fuel.
Faithfully,
Douglas Castle
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