Through our communications (oral, written and non-verbal), business and social networking, and other interactions, Human Beings are constantly reaching out, and trying to establish connection with other members of our species. While selfishness, to a limited extent can be necessary for survival, we form groups, clubs, colonies and cooperatives for survival as well.
These mixed survival signals wreak havoc in each of us; and they also create problems between nations, which are social/economic/political creatures unto themselves.
There is always that dynamic balance, or imbalance (more appropriately) between isolationism and alliance formation when it comes to international affairs.
During the course of these next few years, this international pulse between behavioral poles, or extremes, will be even more pronounced.
On the Internationalist Front, as individuals are more aggressively and spontaneously reaching out to other individuals and groups through the use of mobile media, VoIP, and other technological advances which make communications easier and far less expensive than ever before, nations and their political leaders may well act in the opposite manner -- being xenophobic, scapegoating other nations, shaming and blaming ethnic groups or cultures, and becoming more territorial.
This may be largely due to a clinging to the last vestiges of the power of sovereignty necessary to political profiteering and the perpetuation of an antiquated paradigm.
China and Russia have both been maligning the United States (which has always been a popular sport, but which was once ostensibly considered to be caused by jealousy) since Standard and Poor's Credit Rating Services downgraded the credit (and credibility) of the U.S. Treasury's debt instruments and the U.S. Dollar -- formerly the world standard for a 'hard currency".
As it is in the U.S., so it will generally be for the rest of the industrialized world. Sadly, this is not because the U.S. is setting the standard for others to follow --- it is merely the downward cascading effect of having so many foreign nations and their constituents as creditors and holders of U.S. Dollar-denominated debt.
When any debtor shows signs of fiscal weakness (America's "Jobless Recovery" is a terrible attempt at a semantics 'workaround'), creditors begin to grumble. This grumbling just happens to be on a global and potentially cataclysmic scale.
The paradox of paradigms will be between the world of individual civilian ambassadors (importers, exporters, contractors, subcontractors, vendors, suppliers, consumers, friends, social media connections and the like) and their respective governments. This is quite a conflict.
This fascinating piece follows from the MondayMorningMemo, produced and published by the iconic Roy C. Williams, the self-proclaimed (and occasionally very insightful) "Wizard Of Ads." His words ring ominously true upon the ears of every true futurist, trend-watcher and socio-economic forecaster.
History, like a bad lunch, has a tendency to repeat itself. And history tends to swing from extreme to extreme (the pendulum effect) in various astonishingly predictable waves and cycles of time. These reactionary paradigm shifts are not predicated upon the extrapolation of "cause and effect" logic, but on periodicity -- certain lengths of time. Remember the movie "Groundhog Day"?
Ironically, some of these predictable swings can be foreseen by checking your calendar without even taking a look at trending news. Like the life cycle of a Human Being, it would seem that the World has a rhythm of its own. And it would seem that this rhythm is exogenously determined by a force beyond our individual or collective consciousness or abilities to control. I will leave this contemplation to the reader, as it involves issues well beyond my depth, expertise or certainty.
I would ask that you stop (before you go off moping) to appreciate one offsetting and positive possibility. We are sentient creatures with some element of free will. By knowing what is happening here, and by being proactive instead of reactive, we might all get out battered, but we can get out alive and a bit better-prepared for the next bout with this killer wave.
Douglas E Castle
http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com
http://TheInternationalistPage.blogspot.com
http://www.TNNWC.com
You'll find Roy's treatment of this subject as fascinating as you will find it frightening......
####
"Let me start at the beginning:
We see the world through the lens of an entirely different set of values every 40 years. We become a different people.
We are pulled 20 years up from the tipping point to the zenith of a “We” (1923 to 1943.)
We swing 20 years down to the next tipping point (1963.) Tipping points are interesting times.
We are pulled 20 years up to the zenith of a “Me” (1963 to 1983.)
We swing 20 years down to the next tipping point (2003.)
Eighty years is a complete cycle but there are only 40 years between the extremes. (The 1943 zenith of “We” to 1983 zenith of “Me.”)
We’re nearly halfway up to the next zenith of “We" (2023.) 2011 is 1931 all over again. But instead of being gaga over a thing called “radio” we’re gaga over this thing called “online.”
A new set of values every 40 years...
On one side are the values of “We,” the team, the tribe, the group working together, staying connected.
On the other side are the values of “Me,” the individual, unique and special and possessing unlimited potential.
“Me”
1. …demands freedom of expression.
2. …applauds personal liberty.
3. …believes one man is wiser than a million men, “A camel is a racehorse designed by a committee.”
4. …wants to achieve a better life.
5. …is about big dreams.
6. …desires to be Number One. “I came, I saw, I conquered.”
7. …admires individual confidence and is attracted to decisive persons.
8. …leadership is, “Look at me. Admire me. Emulate me if you can.”
9. …strengthens a society’s sense of identity as it elevates attractive heroes.
“We”
1. …demands conformity for the common good.
2. …applauds personal responsibility.
3. …believes a million men are wiser than one man, “Two heads are better than one.”
4. …wants to create a better world.
5. …is about small actions.
6. …desires to be a productive member of the team. “I came, I saw, I concurred.”
7. …admires individual humility and is attracted to thoughtful persons.
8. …leadership is, “This is the problem as I see it. Please consider the things I am telling you and perhaps we can solve this problem together.”
9. …strengthens a society’s sense of purpose as it considers all its problems.
“Me” and “We” are equal-but-opposite attractions that pull our perspective one way, then the other. Western society swings like a pendulum from one set of values to the other every 40 years with the regularity of an old and reliable grandfather clock.
“Me” and “We” values are equally good, but we always take a good thing too far.
If history is to be our guide, the next 20 years will be when we move from our agreement of mutual brokenness, “I’m Not Okay – You’re Not Okay,” to embrace a self-righteous indignation, “I’m Okay – You’re Not Okay.”
Sanctimonious vigilante-ism will become popular as indignant leaders demonize their enemies and rally their followers by appealing to their inborn sense of rightness and social obligation, “Let’s clean this place up and to hell with compromise. They are entirely wrong and we are entirely right. They are stupid. We are wise. They are evil. We are good.”
The last time we went through this, America formed a committee in Congress called the House Un-American Activities Committee (1938) which later watched with glee while Senator Joseph McCarthy destroyed countless careers by recklessly branding his enemies as “Communists” and creating the infamous blacklists.
This sounds a bit far-fetched, doesn’t it? I know it does. I'm writing because I want you to be able to look back and recall how absurd this all sounded when I first told you what was on the horizon if history can be trusted.
A self-righteous nut with a gun killed dozens of people in Norway and believed he was doing the right thing.
That’s the problem with self-righteous nuts; they always believe they’re doing the right thing.
Roy H. Williams
####
Castle's Commentary:
Observation 1: Futurists and Prognosticators --- We cannot predict or prepare for the future without taking into account these "temporal Pendulum swings" and cycles. An accurate forecasting model or algorithm requires that these seemingly exogenously-determined or caused cycles be given inclusion and proper weighting.
Observation 2: Internationalists and Citizen Ambassadors --- While we are on the cusp of a long-term cycle, we can work together to get through some very rough waters by being aware of what is happening to us, bearing in mind what is at stake, and by being more highly proactive in our watchfulness of our respective national governments in their proclamations and policies. Governments should serve the needs of their individual citizens, and not the opposite. We've seen far too much of that lately.
Related articles
- The pendulum swings the other way.... (tagg-lines.com)
- The pendulum of behavior (rafaelcorrales.com)
- Mesmerizing Pendulum Waves (neatorama.com)
- Natural Environmental Factors That Affect Business (thinkup.waldenu.edu)
- You Might be a Marxist (nortonbooks.typepad.com)
- Fixing the economy: we need long-term solutions (openitstrategies.com)
- The Evolution Of The Tech Bubble (businessinsider.com)
- Robert Teitelman: Frydman and Goldberg's Beyond Mechanical Markets (huffingtonpost.com)
- An Urgent Memo to the World (thenaturaleye.wordpress.com)
- Showtime: Pendulum Waves (wired.com)
- Political Posturing Versus Honesty - Domestic And International Sabotage (douglascastle1.wordpress.com)
- Reps' mixed signals highlight problems for Obama (laaska.wordpress.com)
- We're not going to have a jobless recovery. We're going to have a jobless future (buzzmachine.com)
- World reacts to U.S. credit downgrade (cnn.com)
- Dollar Weakens to Record Versus Franc as S&P Lowers U.S. Rating (businessweek.com)
- Nationalist Economics: Realism Versus Capitalism And Socialism (liverpoolbnp.wordpress.com)
- China's Conundrum: Trapped in Treasurys (online.wsj.com)
- The End of American (Economic) Exceptionalism (blogs.hbr.org)
- Credit Downgrade Aftermath: Falling Markets, Raging Opinions, Mixed Reactions (alternativenewsreport.net)
- Political Parties versus Fiscal Responsibility: Standard and Poor's Reacts First (yumaprogressive.wordpress.com)
- Stretching Your Global Mindset (blogs.hbr.org)
- Markets Live transcript 8 Aug 2011 (ftalphaville.ft.com)
- Special Report: S&P's News Worries Asian Markets - Christian Post (news.google.com)
- Georges Ugeux: Are Rating Agencies Acting in the Name of God? (huffingtonpost.com)
- Brazil Said to Keep Foreign Reserves in Dollars After Downgrade (businessweek.com)
- Gloating China Says "Has Every Right To Demand US Address Its Debt Problem", Asks For New Global Reserve Currency (zerohedge.com)
No comments:
Post a Comment