Showing posts with label The Global Futurist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Global Futurist. Show all posts

Monday, November 30, 2015

IMF's Acceptance Of The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan): Implications

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IMF's Acceptance Of The Chinese Renminbi (Yuan): Implications

The following material was derived from an article which appeared in The New York Times, today, November 30, 2015, and which was subsequently posted in Yahoo News. The implications, both short-term and in the longer-term are far-reaching and may produce increased pressure against the U.S. Dollar in the global Marketplace. It stands to benefit China in terms of international trade and capital markets, while having a potentially negative effect on the U.S. Currency's valuation and the U.S.' ability to compete in the global marketplace. Links to each of the two articles follow below:



In its simplest form, the renminbi, will now be join the USD and other long-standing preferred reserve currencies as a new preferred reserve currency and as a member of the market basket of currencies that comprise SDRs (Special Drawing Rights), which are the surrogate currency which the central banks of the world use to settle interbank debts through the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Possible implications are listed below for your review and evaluation:

=+ A percentage of the world's banks will now hold renminbi instead of dollars in their reserve portfolio. This will place a downward pressure on the USD just based upon the law of supply and demand;

=+ An increasing number of international transactions will now be denominated in renminbi in lieu of USD;

=+ There will be a strengthening of the renminbi and a weakening of the USD;

=+ China's position as an exporter (driven largely by its pricing advantages) will be somewhat more challenged, while the U.S.' potential as an exporter will be strengthened due to a “cheaper” currency;

=+ There may be an influx of USD back into the U.S. Which may be perceived by the Fed as being inflationary, which will put pressure on the Fed to increase domestic interest rates;

=+ The U.S securities markets will be adversely affected;

=+ The Chinese securities markets will be favorably impacted;

=+ U.S. Banks may risk slight credit downgrades;

=+ Chinese banks will experience increased credit stability.

In sum, the longer-term effect of this move by the IMF will cause some additional economic hardship for the U.S.


Douglas Castle

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Saturday, December 01, 2012

Who Gets The Lion's Share Of UN Funds?

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Just as a matter of making publicly-available (but not always highly publicized) information on the operations of the United Nations accessible to all of my colleagues, readers, followers and the occasional accidental tourist to The Internationalist Page Blog site, I thought it would be of benefit to take a good look at where the UN's money is invested. This information sometimes provides very, very valuable clues into which countries and causes carry the most clout with this august body of brilliance [I tend to be sarcastic, but I am making a conscious effort to cut back a bit], and which parties have the best lobbying access to its international purse strings.

Please be fully at liberty to draw whatever conclusions you wish from the data set forth in the table embedded in the article below, which appears courtesy of the U.K. Guardian, a superb publication upon which many Internationalists and Global Futurists as well as business leaders have come to rely:

-----------------------------------------------

Guardian Global Development 

Who's doing business with the UN? – get the data

Developing and emerging economies, led by India and Russia, are winning a growing share of UN business but American companies still dominate.
united nations soldiers
UN peacekeeping forces in Ivory Coast. Which countries are doing the most business with the UN? Photograph: Rebecca Blackwell/AP

The UN spends billions of dollars each year buying goods and services for peacekeeping, humanitarian and development projects around the world. In the UK, this has made the global body a key target for the government's aid-funded business service, which seeks to connect British companies with the lucrative business opportunities offered by development finance.

The share of UN business going to rich countries has long been a source of contention for developing countries. Two general assembly resolutions, in 2005 and 2007, pushed the UN to increase opportunities for firms from developing and transition economies to win its contracts.

In 2006, China and the G77 group of developing countries "noted with dismay" the small share of UN business going to the majority of member states.

So who's doing business with the UN? And how have things changed over time? Last week the largely low-profile UN office for project services (Unops) uploaded five years and $56bn worth of UN procurement data, making it possible – for the first time – to closely examine and monitor how the UN system spends its money.

Highlights from the data:
• In 2011 UN organisations spent $14.3bn buying everything from food and medicines to transport and construction services – down from $14.5bn in 2010 but still significantly higher than the $10.1bn spent in 2007.
• Developing and emerging economies, led by India (5.1%) and Russia (4.2%), are gaining a growing share of this business. Indian firms sell goods to UN agencies, notably vaccines, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. Russian companies primarily sell air transport services and food supplies.

• In 2011, procurement from developing and emerging countries increased by $126m, bringing their share of UN business to 58.7%.

• The US is still the top supplier of goods and services to the sprawling UN system, providing 10% of the total last year.
• Some UN agencies buy more from developing countries than others. The UN development programme (UNDP), for example, buys 79% of its goods and services from developing and emerging economies, while the UN children's fund (Unicef) buys less than 40% from them.
• The UK sold £417m in goods and services to the UN last year, down from £490m in 2010 but up by 40% from $295m in 2007.
Unops says it is "committed to ensuring fair and equitable access to the UN market" and has tried to support developing country firms through outreach and capacity-building programmes, simplifying its vendor registration procedures, improving access to tender opportunities through an online portal, and restructuring bidding to make it easier for small and medium-sized enterprises to participate.

In addition, it says, the industrial sectors of many developing and emerging economies have become more competitive since 2005, which can help explain their growth in the UN market.
The UN has been tainted by high-profile procurement controversies in the past – from the Oil-for-food scandal to suspicions of collusion and price inflation in procurement for peacekeeping operations.

Previously, data on UN procurement was included in annual reports, published as pdfs, making it difficult to extract, explore and analyse.
Vitaly Vanshelboim, Unops deputy executive director, said the data release was part of the organisation's broader commitment to transparency. "The more all stakeholders can see and understand how development funds are used, the greater the chance is that these limited resources will be used effectively," he said.

Unops has published further details of its own contracts – including supplier names and the purpose of awarded contracts – on a dynamic feed updated every 24 hours, and geo-coded information on the over 1,000 projects it supports around the world.
The full data is below. What can you do with it?

Data summary

Who's doing business with the UN? - the top 20

Click heading to sort table. Download this data
Vendor country
2011
2010
2009
Share of total (in 2011)
United States of America $1,534,803,021.91 1519019984.16 1733956044.89 10.81%
Switzerland $735,893,330.09 841354062.71 843782922.74 5.18%
India $724,630,023.31 567608257.95 676702318.76 5.11%
Russian Federation $597,174,111.05 552084421.24 463186905.13 4.21%
Afghanistan $537,300,509.68 669208062.03 435966915.7 3.79%
Belgium $455,300,042.12 324861633.06 388138297.68 3.21%
France $436,711,828.77 443770765.51 408082048.37 3.08%
Italy $423,258,480.89 376898865.62 392228784.23 2.98%
Denmark $422,400,542.75 469895788.21 346782365.75 2.98%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland $417,037,808.38 489993859.05 411303921.8 2.94%
Sudan $404,841,260.87 601708018.51 641655138.39 2.85%
Kenya $398,823,598.27 298902180.87 299968801.78 2.81%
Argentina $365,809,657.34 344488500.24 170636967.67 2.58%
United Arab Emirates $306,564,887.38 164531644.99 128089670.61 2.16%
Pakistan $267,653,789.00 468497687.89 185142235.45 1.89%
Panama $196,244,948.46 140569667.01 179050150.82 1.38%
Germany $195,355,715.78 202244051.58 181167991.1 1.38%
Brazil $188,901,055.10 227243349.22 125087499.52 1.33%
South Africa $188,205,761.95 210129624.68 257946449.73 1.33%

Well, colleagues, readers, followers and all others who have stopped by, please don't ever stop thinking that the UN is, as are all government and intergovernmental bodies, a political animal which gives its fiscal love to the highest bidder, the squeaky wheel or the most attractive (and "politically correct") guest at the latest fund-raiser.

This does not offset the good that the UN does in terms of humanitarianism, it just shows that there are other aspects to UN that warrant some scrutiny and open analysis.

As always, thank you for reading me, and for retweeting me.

Douglas E. Castle




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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

The Greatest Economic Stimulus - Entrepreneurship - GICBC

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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Advocate and Navigate: Two Key Thematic Trends Which Will Shape Future Careers.

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Advocate and Navigate - Two Key Thematic Trends which will Shape Future Careers.

Note: This article was written by Douglas Castle for publication in The Global Futurist. This article may be re-published, reproduced or otherwise transmitted without the author's or publisher's consent provided that the article is published in its unabridged entirety, with full attribution to both the author and the source, and  with all hyperlinks left intact and live. If words are spelled improperly, please leave them that way - it is always deliberate (only kidding). 

Dear Friends:

In the very near future,  new types of entire businesses and their subsumed career paths will be concentrated in the fields (either singly or combined) of advocacy and navigation.

The first has to do with proactively representing and protecting the rights of potentially vulnerable individuals; the second has to do with finding, communicating with, coordinating and monitoring all of the parties and all of their efforts as may be required to achieve any complex and important goal.

These two categorical career "designations" address two major issues, both of which are increasing in magnitude daily (although in a world of largely decreasing expectations, people are very resigned to both of these growing problems, despite their kicking and cursing about "the System"):
  • We are living in an increasingly decentralized world, where there are more moving parts to virtually every social process, and more participants than ever before. With outsourcing, subcontracting and migration of businesses to cyberspace, many of the persons involved in any given process do not know eachother or communicate with eachother -- they are often functioning as a headless juggernaut, where no one person takes ultimate responsibility or internally manages a process from start to finish;

  • We are living in an increasingly de-personalized society, where people do not interact as emotionally, or with the same level of commitment to eachother as in earlier times. This is a function of self-defensiveness and insularity (more computer contact, less physical contact and body language exchanges). We feel, lamentably, that "every one of us much watch out for himself or herself, because others are doing the same." 

Ultimately, these two new categories, used in the new senses of their respective meanings, serve as a means of re-centralizing and re-personalizing processes. 

Experts are needed to advocate and navigate for us...we are an entire species trying desperately to cope with the difficulties imposed upon us by a combination of societal factors, including, but not limited to:

1. Increasingly complex technology versus an increasing percentage of older persons in the general population;

2. Increasing de-centralization compartmentalization and specialization of virtually every aspect of every service business, in both the private and public sectors -- no one individual guides a customer, consumer or client through any process from start to finish anymore;

3. Increasing subcontracting, outsourcing and offshoring, with multicultural miscommunications, reminiscent of the Tower of Babel;

4. Deterioration in customer information access, service and responsiveness due to automation and "pidgeonhole" menu choices...have you ever had a particular problem which you needed to speak with with a utilities company about, only to telephone the toll-free number and be given a choice of four options, none of which actually addressed your situation? After that, did you wait on the phone for what seemed like an eternity (not daring to hang up and lose your precious place in line) while listening to distorted and terribly over-orchestrated music with brief interruptions by some syntho-voice saying, "Please stay on the line. All of our representatives are busy serving other customers. You call will be answered in the order in which it was received. Your estimated waiting time is 20 minutes..."? Sometimes these calls add further injury to insult by adding a "canned" message saying something to the effect of, "Due to an unusually high volume of telephone calls, it might take a long time to have a representative speak with you. If you'd prefer, you can reach us at our website, at ---------------, or, if your call is not an emergency, call us at some other time?"

The patience required to deal with this type of manifest impertinence and impersonal treatment is something which I am having a difficult time cultivating.

I remember being able to call up the "operator" (a Humanoid) on the telephone to request a telephone number for a particular party. Now, I have to go online to find telephone numbers.

Simple requests for information have now become research projects, requiring a great deal of skill and determination.

4. A very low signal-to-noise ratio in the media barrage, combined with declining attention spans and impatience born of sensorial overload and obsessive multi-tasking (i.e., doing many things simultaneously without getting any single one of them completed to any reasonable standard of quality);

5. An increasingly fractionalized social structure with limited communication between components -- this means that each of us, individually has expend the effort to coordinate multiple parties as may be required in the circumstances;

6. An ever-increasing pile of convoluted and often highly confusing protocols, rules and regulations governing virtually anything which we ordinarily do in our lives. You simply cannot accomplish anything institutionally without working through a mountain of forms and other paperwork;

7. People have, to a great extent, lost touch with the notion of investing in long-term relationship-building. Our lives have largely become a staccato series of fleeting and impersonal interactions with others, with time at an ever-increasing premium. We have many "contacts" and very few functioning, responsive and compassionate relationships. We are, ironically, more isolated than ever before.

In sum, when someone about whom you care is: chronically ill; aging; dying; experiencing profound emotional problems; contending with substance abuse; in financial trouble; in legal trouble...etcetera...etcetera...you will need to find some ultimate decider and coordinator of the entire process.

You will need an ADVOCATE and a NAVIGATOR.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle

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Thursday, August 20, 2009

ISSUES OF TRUST AND CREDIBILITY

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Dear Friends:

I believe that trust is the most critical ingredient to any operation requiring more than one person. Trust binds us, yet it frees us. It allows us to focus on accomplishing what needs to be accomplished, instead of wasting time and energy trying to secon-guess the other individual's motives or "hidden agenda." Trust is becoming a rarer and rarer commodity in these times of depersonalization, cyberconferencing, text-messaging and, in general, limited physical person to person contact.

Trust between people. Trust between groups. Trust between organizations. Trust between nations. Trust between individuals and institutions. Trust between citizens and their own governments...

If you establish a record of trust, you build your credibility, and with that, your Relationship Capital Quotient (refer to numerous articles and interviews by, or featuring, Adam J. Kovitz, of The National Networker Companies). A simple example: I trust my life insurance agent -- he carries a high Relationship Capital Quotient. If I need a referral to another professional, I will phone this fellow because I trust that he would only refer me to a trusted colleague. He has, unbeknownst to him, become a moral surety on all of the persons he refers to me. He is also becoming more and more indispensable to me. He is trusted; he has credibility; he is valuable.

During the Bush administration in the United States, the US lost a great deal of credibility with the International Community (and the US citizenry lost a great deal of trust for their government and leadership). Secretive, hard-line, callous administrations...those who dictate terms and carry out their plans despite any opposition, difference of opinion, or the objections of their own people tend to be looked on very negatively. Be a powerful, determined leader by all means...but do not put on blinders to the reservations and opinions of others, and don't intimidate all of those who oppose your unilaterally chosen course of action. You cannot afford to be selfish, completely unyielding, oppressive and too secretive -- this conduct breeds suspicion and mistrust.

A brief exerpt from the NEW YORK TIMES follows to illustrate this point:

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Wednesday, August 19, 2009 -- 9:38 PM ET-----

Outsiders Were Hired as C.I.A. Planned to Kill Jihadists

"The Central Intelligence Agency in 2004 hired outsidecontractors from the private security contractor Blackwater USA as part of a secret program to locate and assassinate topoperatives of Al Qaeda, according to current and former government officials.

Executives from Blackwater, which has generated controversy because of its aggressive tactics in Iraq, helped the spy agency with planning, training and surveillance. The C.I.A.spent several millions of dollars on the program, which did not capture or kill any terrorist suspects."

Read More:http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na

-----Now get New York Times breaking news alerts sent to your mobile phone. Sign up by texting NEWSALERTS to 698698 (NYTNYT)
####

An article which I had recently written about trust also follows, printed in full, for your review. while this article centers on events in The United States, it can easily be generalized to global matters...matters common to us all.



IN ______ WE TRUST?


Note: This article, written by Douglas Castle, was originally published in HUMANITAS MAXIMUS (http://HumanitasMaximus.blogspot.com)



Dear Friends:



When it comes to banking nowadays, we would all be wise to adhere to a policy of "Let the Customer" beware. Count your change. Put your hand over your wallet. Reconcile every statement.



Banks are cutting credit lines (arbitrarily and capriciously, despite your actual credit history), destroying credit ratings left and right, charging record fees for overlimit expenditures and late payments, giving us the runaround when we try to "restructure" our mortgages, denying both individuals and businesses any credit facilities, foreclosing without a second thought, and enjoying the pleasure of government-infused taxpayer money. The Fed is not exactly forthcoming with the truth about the financial condition of banks and other credit institutions. The percentage of the population either unemployed or incarcerated continues to grow. The IRS is all but turning its agents into bounty hunters. A growing number of U.S. citizens are without healthcare insurance -- yet the insurance companies seem to be doing fairly well -- their health is certainly better than the average overstressed, overburdened and struggling citizen's. Unpaid insurance claims are piling up while premiums rise like the waters of Hurricane Katrina. There is desperation in the air, like the tinge of ozone before a major thunderstorm. When you telephone any major company for answers or explanations, you get a recorded menu of choices -- and when you've finally made your selection (*after going through any entire decision-tree matrix of choices), you are put on hold. Every possible impediment has been placed between humans to prevent real interpersonal interaction. And we are all suffering the consequences.



Here's a terrific (in a sad sort of way) story and some sideline articles, courtesy of Yahoo! News:



Bank's big auction blunder
A woman returns home to find a stranger demanding she leave "his" house. » Sold by mistake -NBC Miami
Find how to fight bank errors
Mortgage delinquency at all-time high



The question to ask yourself is, "Does it still make sense to give anyone the benefit of the doubt?"



The greatest challenge facing each of us is finding someone in whom (or something in which) we can trust. Trust is the glue that holds every relationship together. In point of fact, trust is the cement that keeps a society "civilized."



This is indeed a time for trusted friends to rediscover eachother, to reconnect with eachother, and to rebuild society from the smallest fundamental elements of the partnership and the team. Person to person, real space, real time.


Faithfully,


Douglas Castle
http://aboutDouglasCastle.blogspot.com

p.s. I write for THE NATIONAL NETWORKER. Get your free subscription at http://twitlik.com/OK .

####

In the coming months and years, Trust and Credibility are going to become more and more difficult to come by, and increasingly difficult to achieve for ourselves. Based upon the the simple economics of supply and demand, this would indicate that Trust and Credibility, and those special people who possess them, are going to become increasingly valuable.

Invest in building your own Trust and Credibility.

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle, Internationalist.

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Monday, July 20, 2009

Economic Policymakers Should be Required to Study Behavioral Psychology

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Dear Friends:

Every economic policymaker should be required to study Behavioral Psychology. Recent monetary and fiscal moves by the government of the United States in response to its severe domestic economic recession have lead many in the International Community to wonder if the folks at the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Oval Office missed one too many classes in either history or behavioral psychology. Perhaps both.

Please read the following, excerpted from the Washington Post, by way of BuzzFlash:

Bailout Overseer Says Banks Misused TARP Funds
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2...sent by etspoon since 17 hours 11 minutes, published about 4 hours 10 minutes
"Many of the banks that got federal aid to support increased lending have instead used some of the money to make investments, repay debts or buy other banks, according to a new report from the special inspector general overseeing the government's financial rescue program. The report, which will be published Monday, surveyed 360 banks that got money through the end of January and found that 110 had invested at least some of it, that 52 had repaid debts and that 15 had used funds to buy other banks."-- Binyamin Appelbaum, Washington Post Staff Writer
tags: banks, bailout, criminality

My comment in response:
There is a terribly large "blind spot" in government policymaking. It is in the area of intersection between economic fixes (bailouts, awards, "infusions," which latter term is my favorite) and behavioral psychology. If you drop a large sum of money in a profligate child's lap, especially after he has proven himself to be a naughty bully as well as a terribly greedy and short-sighted lout, he will see it as encouragement (my more articulate colleagues would call this "positive reinforcement"). If you then fail to attach very specific terms and conditions to the use of that sum -- like, by way of example, making loans to consumers and the businesses that employ them -- as well as the clear and enforceable threat of substantial punishment for noncompliance, you've given the profligate more than just a gift; you have given him a gift at the expense of every consumer, every business and every taxpayer in the entire economy. Every so often, one of the government's policy pundits has to repeat the silly exercise of trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it. And, invariably, he is compelled to do it in someone else's house. --DC

Faithfully,

Douglas Castle
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Monday, February 04, 2008

WELCOME TO "ME, INCORPORATED"

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Dear Readers:


Welcome to "ME, INCORPORATED."
I must give my friend and colleague, Adam J. Kovitz, attribution for that latter term. It has sparked a serious interest in me. Adam speaks and writes eloquently about Relationship Capital -- a certain measure of value each of us has by virtue of his access to and influence upon others. From a cold perspective, the more Relationship Capital one has, the greater one's value in the world of commerce.
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While we stand by as observers and ultimately, as beneficiaries, Adam is refining the definition and measurement of this valuable essence, and is seeking the Philosopher's Stone to transmute ordinary individuals and organizations into individuals and organizations (which are ultimately just groups of individuals) into value-added enterprises, fueled with growing reserves of Relationship Capital.

There are numerous ways in which each of us can participate (and even collaborate!) with Adam, who is also the publisher of THE NATIONAL NETWORKER. Your education begins with a visit to http://thenationalnetworker.com/ . Adam references the notion of Relationship Capital quite frequently in his writings and speaking engagements. An organization which Adam had played an initial role in (which, sadly has gone off on a tangent since Adam left in order to pursue the development of the concept on his own), the RNIA, is attempting to popularize the same notion, but without adequate focus or success. Adam continues to further the development and understanding of the concept through THE NATIONAL NETWORKER, Adam's growing publication about many aspects of networking and relationship-building. I would suggest you go to the site and subscribe to this Newsletter. Adam has several exceptionally passionate and knowledgeable writers who contribute some fabulous content.


Traditional macroeconomic models, particularly those involving fiscal policy, are going to be replaced with a radical new paradigm. You will not be able to understand economics, marketing, management or politics without incorporating a study of RELATIONSHIP CAPITAL.


We are, each of us, a self-contained, fully-functioning enterprise. As I have said before, each of us is our own representative to the rest of the world. Each of us bears the torch and each of us is a citizen ambassador. Enabled with constantly-improving communications technologies, each of us is a corporation...each of us is a nation...each of us has the world within his grasp. What will determine the individual success which each of us enjoys, however, will be his ability to differentiate himself, as an entity, from a host of competitors for the world's attention. We must each have something unique to offer.

From an Internationist Perspective, I would propose that you start taking an inventory of the following attributes, each of which is going to be a variable in the equation that measures your store of Relationship Capital:






  • The number of personal and professional contacts you have directly;


  • The sphere of influence that each of these contacts possesses;


  • The speed of your access to these contacts (a function of trust, credibility, prior experience, how likeable you are, how helpful you are, and the like);


  • Your ability to mobilize these contacts to take action;


  • Your ability to orchestrate an operation involving several contacts simultaneously...


The list continues...

By analogy, each of us is like an individual cell, infused with unique DNA. But with the application of communications technology and Relationship Capital, we can each function as an entire body by sparking other cells into cooperative wakefulness. One single cell can spark world change...One single cell can transform the entire body...One single cell can unite all of Humanity.
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Welcome again to ME, INCORPORATED, and to its ultimate stock in trade -- Relationship Capital.

Douglas Castle,

Internationalist

Thursday, July 05, 2007

CROSS-LINK TO: THE GLOBAL FUTURIST

Share this ARTICLE with your colleagues on LinkedIn .




Dear Friends:


I would like very much for you to click on THE GLOBAL FUTURIST at http://TheGlobalFuturist.blogspot.com/. I invite your opinions, criticisms and comments, as well as your suggestions for other topics worthy of a futuristic exploration. Please feel free, as always, to write to me at FreeDECastle001@yahoo.com.


I sincerely hope that you enjoy THE GLOBAL FUTURIST. Next post, we'll be back to our regularly scheduled program.


Faithfully,


Douglas Castle, Internationalist
NOW, THIS BECOMES VERY PERSONAL...........I AM ASKING YOU FOR A FAVOR.


~~~ While you are exploring cyberspace, please take a moment to click on http://HumanitasMaximus.blogspot.com/ for some critical tips regarding womens' safety.
***While I have personally never been a woman, I have known a great many (including my mother, my sister, my beautiful daughters, and some of my favorite people in the world).
~~~READ THE ARTICLE AND EMAIL IT TO EVERY WOMAN WHOM YOU KNOW. THIS IS YOUR CHANCE TO SAVE A LIFE. SPREAD THE WORD -- STOP A DEFENSELESS WOMAN FROM BEING VICTIMIZED! Thank you.
- In Memoriam -
I dedicate this post to the memory of Rachel W., who never stood a chance. And to the selfish fools who could have simply walked her to her door instead of leaving her undefended.

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